Richard's Update

Cheltenham Festival Latest

After last weekend’s action there are plenty of Cheltenham clues to digest as we move full steam ahead to the festival in around six weeks – here’s my take on the main races after this latest set of trials......

Starting with the Gold Cup, I was really impressed with Midnight Chase’s Argento win on Saturday and although he had no Kauto Star and Long Run to contend with he still put Time For Rupert and Diamond Harry, two well touted Gold Cup horses at the beginning of the season, firmly in their place. Yes, with the sometimes quirky Tidal Bay in second some might question the form, but let’s not forget that horse is an Arkle winner and has been rated as high as 166 in the past.

You can guarantee that if this Neil Mullholland-trained 10 year-old was in the care of a bigger yard then he certainly wouldn’t be around 20/1 in the betting, while the fact he absolutely loves it at Cheltenham (5 course wins), then if fancy taking on Kauto and Long Run then there would be worse each-way alternatives – he’ll be looking to follow in the hoof-prints of Gold Cup winners Master Oats and Looks Like Trouble who both won the Argento Chase before going onto Cheltenham glory.

As for Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert is looks as if it will be back to the drawing board for connections after being touted as potential threats to the main Gold Cup players and any sort of festival win now looks extremely unlikely.

Next up is the Champion Hurdle – and how impressive was the current champ, Hurricane Fly, on Sunday? Many think, and I’m tending to agree, that was his best run to date and having been cut from around 7/4 to Evs (4/6 in places) then the feature race on the opening day looks his to lose once again. Those against him might be concerned about the desperate conditions at Leopardstown leaving a mark, but Willie Mullins’ charge pulled away from a decent field in effortless fashion to suggest, to me, that he could be even better in six weeks. Nicky Henderson’s Grandouet and last year’s well-bred Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar, who we’ve yet to see this season, look the only feasible threats.

The short-priced players out there must have missed a heartbeat or three when they saw Big Buck’s being rowed along with a few to jump in the Cleeve Hurdle as Tom Scudamore tried to steal the race on the turn onboard Dynaste, but we all know he’s done this before and once the hill and his stamina kicked in there was in the end only going to be one winner as he made it 15th straight victories.

Most firms remained unchanged at around 4/7 for him to secure a fourth World Hurdle and with the opposition looking thin on the ground then even at those odds it he’s bound to attract plenty of punters siding with this festival banker.

I guess the Cheltenham market that changed the most after the weekend was the Triumph Hurdle after Tom George’s Baby Mix was firmly put in his place by Grumeti and Pearl Swan. The last-named was first past the post but after bumping the runner-up in the closing stages and the fact the winning margin was just a short head then the stewards eventually awarded the race to Alan King’s Grumeti – it did, however, look a shade harsh to me for Ruby, who was riding Pearl Swan, to be handed a three day ban for careless riding.

In an ultra-competitive ante-post market Pearl Swan is now into 10/1 (as short as 5/1), while Grumeti can be supported as big as 12/1, but the current favourite with most firms remains the Philip Hobbs-trained Sadler’s Risk, who was a 17 length winner at Kempton on his first run over hurdles. For me, it’s a tricky race to unravel, but I know that Paul Nicholls is confident of improving Pearl Swan further and now he’s also got course form this will be a huge asset come March.

The Arkle is still shaping up to be one of the races of the festival , but with Menorah taking an early tumble at Doncaster on Saturday it’s hard to see him coping with the more tricky Cheltenham fences and he’s now as big as 16/1 for the race – I suspect connections might in time be tempted to revert him back to hurdles in the coming seasons. Sprinter Sacre, who I highlighted earlier on in the season at around 8/1, is now the clear 9/4 market leader and despite Peddlers Cross, Al Ferof and Cue Card all worthy rivals I know connections think the world of Sprinter Sacre and I’d still be confidently with him at this stage.

I was really taken with the way The Giant Bolster saw off a decent field in the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday, and now that he’s seemingly got his act together over fences with that 17 length win then he looks one to have on your side in six weeks. Yes, his rating will be on the up, and being entered in a few races then it’s probably best to wait until connections firm up his plans – what we do know though is that he’s NOT entered in the Ryanair Chase.

Grands Crus is still the short-priced favourite for the RSA Chase, but there is still a strong chance he could be heading for the Gold Cup and if he does then this would make the current 12/1 on offer for Sir Des Champs look very big. Willie Mullins’ 6 year-old made it three-from-three over fences with a win at Leopardstown on Saturday and last year’s winner of the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the festival should be even better once stepped up to the 3m RSA trip. Add in he’s got festival experience, that the Irish have landed the last three runnings and that his owner took that Cheltenham race with Weapon’s Amnesty back in 2010, then he’s another that looks an eye-catching each-way option.

Finally, it was good to see Henrietta Knight grab another big Saturday winner – this time with Calgary Bay, who was an impressive winner of the SkyBet Chase up at Doncaster on Saturday. That victory saw the layers cut his odds to around 12/1 the JLT Handicap Chase on the opening day, but many were also talking about him as a Grand National horse and despite not a certain runner for the Liverpool marathon you can be sure that if he does make the line-up he won’t be 33/1 on the day!

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Richard Dunwoody with his Ten to Follow for the new National Hunt Season.

FIRST LIEUTENANT:
Trainer: Mouse Morris
Age: 6
Main Target: RSA Chase
The winner of last season's Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle made a winning debut over fences at Tipperary, but despite not following up at Cork next time that experience would have been vital and he only went down by a nose to a useful sort. He'll need to brush up on his jumping, but the fact his trainer has him on the go early suggests he's trying to teach him plenty before tackling the better races. He's a potential Gold Cup horse in the making, but that is at least a season away with the RSA Chase (12/1) at the Cheltenham Festival his main target this term.

LONG RUN
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Age: 6
Main Targets: King George & Gold Cup
The new kid on the block and current Cheltenham Gold Cup winner looks to have the race at his mercy again this season. With Kauto Star and Denman not getting any younger and Weapons Amnesty now out for the season, then, unless something improves bucket loads, it will be left to the likes of Captain Chris or Time For Rupert to try and lower his colours - and neither of that pair look capable in my eyes! Expect him to defend his King George on Boxing Day at Kempton, while being only 6 years-old he is certainly capable of dominating that race, as well as the Gold Cup, for the next 3 seasons!

BOBS WORTH
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Age: 6
Main Target: RSA Chase
Looks another top class recruit to the chasing game after being unbeaten over hurdles from four runs last season. His highlight was running away with the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the Festival last term, and providing he takes to fences his main asset is his liking for Cheltenham - he's currently three-from-three at the Prestbury Park course.

BIG BUCK'S
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Age: 8
Target: World Hurdle
His last defeat came in the 2008 Hennessy when unshipping Sam Thomas at the final fence, but since then he's on a run of 12 straight hurdles victories, including three World Hurdles. Another win at Cheltenham this year will see him better Inglis Drever's haul of three wins in the race and in doing so secure his place in the festival record books. Last season David Pipe's Grands Crus gave it a good go to end his domination in this sphere, but came up just short and is now off novice chasing this year. Expect connections to take a similar path this year with the Long Distance Hurdle and Long Walk, before his Cheltenham defence, and let's not forget he's also won the Liverpool Hurdle for the past three seasons too!

HURRICANE FLY
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Age: 7
Target: Champion Hurdle
Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh both finally broke their Champion Hurdle ducks last term and the manner of Hurricane Fly's victory in 2011 suggests he'll be a tough nut to crack in 2012. He's now on a run of seven straight wins and now that he's won at Prestbury Park (many thought the track wouldn't suit) and the fact that last year's Champion Hurdle runner-up, Peddlers Cross, and the third, Oscar Whisky, are likely to pursue other avenues this term then there's not a lot coming out of the woodwork. Also did you know that Ruby has never lost on Hurricane Fly? - He's currently 5-from-5!

DARLAN
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Age: 4
Target: Leading Novice Hurdle Races
This well-bred Henderson 4 year-old could be anything after romping to a 27 length success in his only start - a NH bumper at Haydock back in April. I know that of the Henderson NH Flat winners from last season this one is more forward than most in his schooling, and the fact JP McManus has put his hand in his pocket to buy him over the summer is another clear indication just how much they think of him at Seven Barrows - He's certainly one to watch out for in the novice hurdle division.

QUEVEGA
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Age: 7
Target: David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
This lightly raced mare will be hoping to enhance her Cheltenham status by winning a fourth David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle next March, and unless something comes out of the woodwork it's hard to see her not achieving it. She's still only 7 years-old and you can expect her to be lightly campaigned again this season, while Ruby has only tasted defeat on her once from seven rides.

BESHABAR
Trainer: Tim Vaughan
Age: 9
Targets: Scottish/English Grand Nationals
This 9 year-old has only had 11 career starts, winning 6 of them, so we can expect more to come from last season's Scottish Grand National winner. He was also a decent second in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival over 4 miles last year so it's clear staying is his game - he's currently 20/1 for the English Grand National next April.

ZARKANDAR
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Age: 4
Targets: Champion Hurdle
This well-bred Nicholls inmate will be the stable's main Champion Hurdle hope this season as the Dicheat handler looks to break his duck in the race. Unbeaten from 3 runs over hurdles he showed a great turn of foot to win last season's Triumph Hurdle and followed that up with victory at Aintree in their Grade 1 Novice Hurdle. He'll need to improve again to master the likes of Hurricane Fly, but he's got time on his side, while a soft palate operation over the summer would have also helped his cause.

MASTER MINDED
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Age: 8
Targets: King George & Ryanair Chase
It's hard to think that this two-time Champion Chase winner is still only 8 years-old but despite having a poor backend to his 2010 campaign he returned better than ever last season after showing the clear benefits of a breathing operation. Yes, a bad mistake at a crucial time cost him another QM Chase last term, but he bounced back when upped to 2m4f next time in the Melling Chase at Aintree and you can expect connections to now target him at the King George over Christmas. That contest will tell them more about his staying power but after that race if they feel the 3m2f Gold Cup distance will be too far then expect them to opt for the Ryanair Chase at the Festival before defending his Melling Chase the following month.