Richard's Update
NEXT week, racing’s bandwagon rolls into York for the four-day Ebor Festival meeting, starting on Tuesday.
Last year’s highlights included the Juddmonte International victory of Derby hero Authorized, who denied subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Dylan Thomas by a length.
The Group 1 event, run over ten and a half furlongs, always attracts the cream of the milers and mile and a half horses, and is the feature of Tuesday’s card.
Here, my top team of form students have been having a look at a few of the stats and trends in a bid to find a few winners next week.
TUESDAY
The Group 2 Tattersalls Millions Acomb Stakes has proven a good race for horses high up in the betting market. In the last 15 runnings, the favourite, second favourite or joint second-favourite has won this 7f event for juveniles on no less than 13 occasions.
It is also a useful pointer to the following season’s Classics. Rule of Law and King’s Best won this race before subsequently going on to land the St Leger and Derby respectively. Runners from the stables of Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute are worth noting.
The 1m 4f Great Voltigeur Stakes is the last recognised trial for the St Leger.
Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien and Godolphin have between them provided nine of the last 15 winners of this 1m 4f race. Eight of the winners in that span came from the top two in the betting market.
The feature of the week is the Group 1 Juddmonte International and the last ten winners had previously won over this extended 1m 2f trip. Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five and the same number had won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season. It pays to look at Group 1 winners. Seven of the last ten winners had won at the highest level.
Seven of the last ten winners started first or second favourite and no winner has been priced bigger than 8/1 in the last decade. Four winners contested the Eclipse, in which they came 1122.
As many as 31 three-year-olds have run in the past decade, but only two have won, and just four have been placed. Three were beaten favourites, but Authorized bucked the trend last year, becoming the first three-year-old and first Derby winner since Troy in 1979 to land this race.
Aidan O’Brien won this with Giant’s Causeway, but his other 15 runners have all been beaten, with Dylan Thomas the only one placed.
WEDNESDAY
The Group 2 Lonsdale Cup is a good race for those who follow the market, because 80% of the winners in the last decade have come from the first three in the betting, including last year’s favourite, Septimus. Eight of the last ten winners of this 2m race had won a Group race previously. Course form is important, since seven of the last ten winners had previously won on the Knavesmire.
The Group 2 Ebor Handicap is one of the big betting races of the week and it pays to look for horses that have recent good form. Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two in one of their last two starts and eight of the last ten winners carried no more than 8st12lb.
Three of 14 three-year-olds have won (Honolulu was second last year). None of the three carried more than 8st8lb, all were rated either 101 or 102 and all had been placed in Group company.
Penalties have been defied three times in the past six years. In the last 11 years, four-year-olds and six-year-olds-plus account for 147 runners, yet they have yielded just three winners. Five of the last eight winners had recorded a top-four finish at Glorious Goodwood.
It pays to look at horses with potential when trying to find the winner of the Gimcrack Stakes, a Group 2 run over 6f.
Nine of the last ten winners have had no more than three previous outings and eight of those ten have come from the first four in the betting.
Four of the last seven winners ran at Royal Ascot. Aidan O'Brien's horses are worth noting. He has saddled five horses – two have won and three have finished second.
THURSDAY
Thursday’s card is a cracker, with both the Group 2 Lowther Stakes a tasty hors d’oeuvre for the main course, the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks.
Eight of the last ten winners of the 6f Lowther, had previously finished first or second last time out and six of the last ten had come from the first two in the betting.
Eight winners of the Princess Margaret at Ascot have gone to post, finishing 26181152. The two Cherry Hinton winners finished second and third, the last to follow up here was Mrs Penny in 1979.
The Yorkshire Oaks, won last year by Peeping Fawn, throws up some interesting trends. Seven of the last ten winners had previously won a Group 1 and eight of the last ten winners had come from the first two in the market.
Oaks winners don’t have a great record, but the four Irish Oaks winners to run all won.
Two winners that had been beaten in the Oaks (fourth and eighth) were trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Peeping Fawn won Goodwood’s Nassau Stakes last year before winning this, but the previous Nassau winners to try their luck at York finished first and fourth.
FRIDAY
Eleven of the last 12 winners of the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes had previously won a race that season.
Last year’s winner, two-year-old Kingsgate Native bucked a trend, becoming the first juvenile since Lyric Fantasy in 1992 to win. Nine of the previous 11 winners were aged between three and five.
Nine of the last 12 winners had come from the first three in the betting and of the seven winners in the last decade that had won over 5f, three had done so in a Group race.
Past three-year-old winners have tended to be proven Group 1 winners against older horses.
Previous winning form is required to find the winner of the Group 2 £300,000 St Leger Yearling Stakes, which was run at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting between 1999 and 2005 – the ten winners had already lost their maiden tag and eight of the last ten had won within their last two starts.
No less than 45 fillies have gone to post in the last 11 years for this 6f race and just one (the inaugural running) has won. All ten winners have been unpenalised colts.
